Dear Reader, In our last newsletter, we touched upon what might provide an up move to the Indian equity markets - tariff resolution or another GDP surprise. The somewhat visible thaw in India-US trade relations led to a small hope led up move in Nifty +2.26%. NASDAQ 100 continued to outperform with gains of +3.44%. The rally in US stocks is clearly led by AI - those are the stocks gaining massive market capitalization and investments continue to flow there. Some analysts have

Dear Reader, This weekend marks the start of festival season in India - season’s greetings from our team. GoI has cut GST rates and the expectation is that this season will see increased household consumption expenditure. Estimates peg the impact at 0.16% boost to GDP - this has already been baked into the market levels and hence we did not see significant up move on the actual announcement. One big surprise was India’s Q1 GDP growth coming in at 7.8%. While Indian macros are

Dear Reader, Nifty is still below our Jun 27th call of temporary peak at 25,700 and Gold’s international price is near consolidation levels of ~$3300/oz.. While both Gold and Indian equities will do well in the long term, some time correction is warranted. Several renowned fund managers have taken to public platforms to raise their concerns on valuations of Indian equities GoI is responding and attempting to revive the economic growth. The big macro change since our last news

Dear Reader, We fear we’ll sound like a broken record if all we discuss is valuations, keeping cash and doing staggered deployments on falls. Hence, we’ll include a short story this time. Once upon a time, there was a powerful king. His palace was a massive consumer of the kingdom's resources as well as producer of technology and science. The wonderful technology built in the palace brought prosperity to the whole kingdom. But the king lived more lavishly than he could afford

Dear Readers, This is an out of band communication because we felt that the financial news industry was not doing justice to the issue of Tariffs. Below, we deconstruct the worst case and then assess the possible impact. The goods exported from India to the US are roughly $81B, out of which ~$15B is exempt (Pharma, Steel etc.). The 25% tariffs on $66B amount to $16.5B. Indian exports to US can be estimated to have a GDP multiplier of 1.3*. That means a GDP loss of ~$21B. That

Dear Reader, We are not going to bore you with yet another post on Jane Street. Our job is to keep an eye out for things that impact your wealth and that requires filtering out the noise. In case you want to read our views on why F&O is a bad idea, you can read our older blog here. Markets have been on a downtrend in India since our last newsletter on 28th June where we pointed to elevated valuations. The critical earnings season has just started. The markets had run up in an